If
you've been paying attention, you've noticed that the stock market
has been doing quite well lately. At the same time, most citizens
are struggling, trying to make ends meet. Stocks are not breaking
new highs because business is booming and sales and profits are
high; they're breaking new highs because banks are using the $85
QE3 Billions they get each month from the Fed to buy stocks and
invest in a new crop of future black swan derivatives instead of
loaning money to businesses to grow the economy (the way banks
used to do).
I
might point out that the Fed is not a government agency, although
sometimes it's referred to as a quasi-governmental agency. It's
really an organization made up of bankers whose main function is
to support the interest of bankers. The Federal Reserve is the
name they came up with to misdirect your mind. The Fed manages the
money supply under the ruse that what they do is for the good of
all Americans, and because they have this cool name, they've been
given permission to create money out of nothing using a few
strokes on their computer keyboards. The Fed is often accused of
printing too much money, but the truth is, they don't really print
it; they just type a few numbers followed lots of zeros into
certain accounts on a computer screen. That's how it's done these
days. But that's beside the point.
Now you may have heard that with all the money the Fed is
creating, we ought to be worried about runaway inflation. That's
what it's called when a whole lot of newly created money chases
the same amount of goods and services. But that's not what I see
happening. First of all, the Fed is keeping interest rates close
to zero. The banks are taking their monthly government QE3 fix and
using it to inflate the stock market. Why would they do that?
Well, they're hoping that pension fund managers - and you - will
decide not to sit on the sidelines while stock prices keep going
up, but rather will put more of your IRA, 401K, and 403B money
into this great stock market in order to keep up with inflation.
As this great bull market begins to permeate the American
consciousness, they're hoping the momentum will grow so that more
and more citizens will decide to get in on the action. When they
do, the banks will be unloading their accumulated stock into this
flood of new cash coming their way. Once the banks have gotten out
of the market, or when QE3 stops, that's when prices will crash.
Why will prices crash? Because the prices being paid for stocks
today are in no way justified by current or anticipated future
corporate earnings. After all, the economy is still only limping
along. Families are spending less because they have less to spend.
Stocks are going up not because earnings are going through the
roof. They're going up because the money the Fed created out of
nothing is driving prices higher. The expected result will be,
that you will take the money in your retirement accounts and
exchange it for the stock the banks have been buying. Soon
thereafter, the value of your stock will go down 50 or 60%. No
inflation. Just the inevitable behavior of an inscrutable stock
market. The banks won't need QE4 because your money will make them
whole or at least a lot better off than they are now.
The newly printed money created by the Fed as part of QE3 will
not have entered the mainstream economy, it will have been used
only to prime the pump until you get the idea to take your savings
and buy a ticket to nirvana. When all is said and done, the banks
will eat your lunch, but you will get the tummy ache. If you think
you are smart enough to make some money in the market and get out
before the crash, lot's of luck. Most people who try will get an
experience they'll never forget. In the end, no one will suspect
that this was a well thought out plan. It will be billed as just
another market correction that happens sometimes in the stock
market. Surely, no one could have seen it coming. Of course not.
Well, I wouldn't worry too much about it: I could be wrong, as
I've been told I have been wrong about a lot of things.
Happy Trails.
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